Turkmen Gas project lifts hope of prosperity
ISLAMABAD, Sept 21: **Once, it was envisioned as a pipeline of peace in central and south Asia. Then the idea was shattered by war in Afghanistan. Now it’s back, with dreams of boosting prosperity for some of the world’s poorest countries.
The project is a gas pipeline from the vast Dauletabad-Donmez fields of Turkmenistan that would cross the mountains and deserts of Afghanistan to a terminus in Pakistan. **
And maybe, if traditional enmities are overcome, it could even extend to energy-parched India.
Ministers from the three countries were meeting this week in Kabul to discuss a feasibility study to be financed by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
Planners must find the finances, evaluate potential markets and form the consortium to build the $2.4 billion pipeline, which will stretch 1,460 kilometres across mostly barren land and carry a projected 15 billion cubic metres of gas a year. The Itochu conglomerate of Japan has expressed interest in investing.
Although the US is no longer involved - it was once in the thick of pipeline negotiations - President Pervez Musharraf discussed the project with President George W. Bush during their brief meeting in New York last week. US officials told The Associated Press the new Afghan government, untested in the ways of multinational business, wanted a US observer involved.
**Economic benefits of the pipeline are clear: it would open an outlet at the Arabian Sea port of Karachi to Asian markets for Turkmenistan, which according to estimates of the ADB may have the world’s fourth largest gas reserves. Its construction would provide 12,000 much-needed jobs in Afghanistan, and then an estimated $300 million in transit fees annually. And it would offer a source of energy and port revenues for Pakistan. **
But there are risks, too: Afghanistan remains unsettled and its new government has yet to firmly establish its authority outside the capital. Pakistan is rife with sectarian terrorism and attacks on Western interests, and Turkmenistan faces the uncertainty of an aging authoritarian leadership.
Promoters say the pipeline will have a political dividend. “This project will help establish peace and stability in the region,” Turkmen Vice President Yolly Gurbanmuradov, who is in charge of the development, said in Kabul.
A Pakistan-India pipeline has been explored several times in recent years, and touted as a way give the rival nations a shared economic interest and help bridge more than a half century of warfare and distrust.
Musharraf has said he doubts a deal with India is possible with the current level of tension. But Energy Minister Usman Aminuddin was quoted as telling the Kabul meeting that Pakistan could still include India in “the first mega-project of the 21st century.”
When the so-called CentGas project was first discussed in the mid-1990s, it was hotly contested by energy companies - and by their governments.
Energy was then a major factor in determining US policy toward Afghanistan and in Washington’s initial welcome for the Taliban regime that seized control of the country in 1996 after a two-year march on the capital.
Before and even after the Taliban takeover of Kabul in September 1996, a corporate war was raging over rights to develop and transport gas over Afghanistan, primarily between Bridas of Argentina and the American company Unocal Corp. (UCL) of El Segundo, California.
Competition was cutthroat. Both Bridas and Unocal signed deals with Pakistan, Turkmenistan and the Taliban, only to be undermined by the other. Bridas once sued Unocal for $15 billion, alleging that the American company prevented it from developing Turkmen gas fields, but a Texas court dismissed the case.
Ultimately, Unocal was forced to withdraw in 1998 after the US fired missiles at bin Laden’s suspected hide-out in retaliation for the bombing of the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. It also had been under pressure from feminist and human rights groups over its collaboration with the repressive Taliban authorities.
Unocal’s pullout, and the endless Afghan civil war, buried the CentGas consortium.
In a statement to its stockholders in May, Unocal said the project was meant to promote stability.
Now the new government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai sees the revival of the plan as a sign of confidence in the future.
“In the last few years of war, it was not practically possible to think seriously about this project,” said Afghan Mines Minister Juma M. Mahammadi. " Luckily, that problem is over now."-