FOLDER - Countdown to Pakistan Elections, 10/10/2002

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
61

http://www.dawn.com/2002/10/02/top8.htm

Mysterious group emerges in polls

By Our Staff Reporter

ISLAMABAD, Oct 1: As many as 99 candidates for the National Assembly and 231 for the provincial assemblies are contesting elections with the symbol crescent but little is known about the group’s objectives and leader.

The existence of the group, which reportedly has reach in the echelons of power, was unknown until Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf Secretary-General Mairaj Mohammad Khan disclosed its existence in his statement and then the PTI downloaded the list of such candidates from the website of the Election Commission.

Some known figures, including former federal minister and a close confidant of President Gen Musharraf, Abbas Sarfaraz Khan, and Sheikh Rashid Ahmed of Rawalpindi, are contesting on National Assembly seats with crescent as their symbol. They are patronising some provincial assembly candidates under the same symbol.

Interestingly, Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-i-Azam) has not fielded its candidates on some seats where potential winners are contesting with crescent as their symbols in Rawalpindi, Mardan and Kohistan.

For NA-49, Islamabad, no candidate of PML-QA is contesting against a strong ‘crescent’ candidate, Mustafa Khokhar, son of former NA speaker Haji Nawaz Khokhar, who was denied ticket by the People’s Party Parliamentarians.

Another key candidate of the ‘crescent group’ is Ghulam Sarwar Khan for NA-53, Rawalpindi, who returned the PPP ticket and decided to contest as an independent candidate.

For NA-176, Muzaffargarh, Meeladi Khar, son of former Punjab governor Ghulam Mustafa Khar, is contesting as a crescent candidate with another former federal mistier, Makhdoom Syed Ahmed Anwar, in field from NA-192, Rahim Yar Khan.

Mir Hazar Khan Bijarani, another former minister also chose not to contest on a PPP ticket and is contesting with crescent as his symbol from Jacobabad.

Another former federal minister, Syed Ali Mardan Shah, is contesting as crescent candidate from NA-228, Mirpurkhas. But most startling is entry of a confidant of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, Mian Ejaz Shafi, in the alleged pro-government independent group. He is contesting for NA-246, Karachi West.

In Dadu, grandson of late nationalist leader G.M. Syed, Syed Jalal Mehmood, is contesting as a crescent candidate.

The secrecy maintained in getting the same symbol and picking some high profile figures from across the country to be part of the group showed that it was part of a master plan under which some political parties and alliances had been picked for official support, sources said.

62

http://frontierpost.com.pk/main.asp?id=7&date1=10/2/2002

EU observers not to pre-judge polls

ISLAMABAD: John Cushnahan, Chief Observer European Union Election Observation Mission to Pakistan has said they were observers and not judges and would present their report within 48 hours of polling in Pakistan.

He termed fake the published interim report and said that was not the interim report of EUEOM.

He made these remarks while talking to journalists here on Tuesday.

However, he added that the report was part of the ongoing briefing of EU Commission in Brussels by EUEOM in which they conveyed concerns that had been expressed to them during the course of their observation.

At this stage, EUEOM has not come to any conclusions on these issues.

Our conclusions will not be finalized until we have had the opportunity to carry out a full de-briefing of our entire observer team, following the completion of the poll count, only then will we produce our preliminary report, he said.

When asked from where else the report could be leaked he said that the report could not be leaked as they had not made any report but someone may had made a report listening to our discussions in the hotel room that may have been bugged or from Washington where EU sent a report.

He thanked the President Musharraf and Chief Election Commission for granting the observers security during the visits and added that other than FATA areas they had visited all the areas.

In a statement issued here Tuesday John Cushnahan, Chief Observer EUEOM to Pakistan has clarified the document which we submitted to the EU Commission last month as part of our ongoing briefing process was entitled: Core Team’s Observations for COASI Meeting September 23, 2002.

The document was on overview of our observation activities containing analysis of concerns expressed to us during the course of our observations.

It was not an Interim Report arriving at conclusions on the Pakistan elections process or aspects of it.

Preparing an analytical document for the purposes of internal analysis is markedly different from producing an Interim Report containing conclusions on the electoral process in Pakistan.

I have always made it clear that our Preliminary Report will only be produced within 48-hours of the close of the polls.

I regret that this leak has happened, especially as the document was for internal briefing purposes only.

This is a very sensitive political situation and the publication of such a document creates unnecessary obstacles.

It could create tensions in our relations with the authorities and some of the country’s political parties.

We have always acted in good faith, and will not be deterred from our task, which we will carry out with impartiality and objectivity.

EUEOM’s core team’s observations for COASI meeting on September 13 states, the core team has been deployed to Islamabad on August 4.

Recently the Mission has been increased through the arrival of 22 Long Term Observers, who have been deployed to nine different locations in Pakistan on 09 September.

The following analysis shall provide a short overview about the election process as far as it can be assessed 30 days before the election, legal side of the election process including analysis of the Legal Framework Order 2002.

At present, the main document laying down the legal order in Pakistan is the Provisional Constitution Order of October 1999, whereas the 1973 Constitution of the country is in abeyance till October 2002 elections, according to the judgment of the Supreme Court of May 2000, the report reads.

Post-election Pakistan will be governed under the 1973 Constitution as amended by the Legal Framework Order 2002 presented by General Musharraf himself on 21 August 2002.

The package of proposed constitutional amendments was first published in June 2002 and was subjected to a public debate for some six weeks.

The majority of the political parties expressed objections either to specific proposals or lo the entirely of the package on the premise that amending me Constitution should be undertaken by Parliament and not by General Musharraf.

The initial package of proposals included more than 70 amendments, out of which nearly one-third were retained in the final announcement as made by General Musharraf himself on 21 August 2002.

The most contentious amendments would be the restoration of Article 58, 2(b), allowing the President to dismiss the Prime Minister and his cabinet as well as to dissolve the entire Parliament at his personal discretion.

Another amendment empowers the Governors to dismiss the Chief Ministers of the Provinces as well as to dissolve the Provincial Assemblies.

The latter amendment renders the Chief Ministers employees of the Governors and the Provincial Assemblies vulnerable to pressure.

The creation of a National Security Council as a constitutional body is seen as yet another tool in the hands of the President, which, furthermore, institutionalizes the presence of the military in the government of Pakistan.

Given that four of the members of the NSC will be the Chiefs of Staff and that President Musharraf remains the Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff, the apprehensions are not unreasonable.

The insertion of a number of qualification and disqualification requirements for candidates for Parliament (Art.

62 and 63, respectively) effectively pre-empting the electoral legislation prior to the adoption of the constitutional amendments by Parliament.

63

http://www.dawn.com/2002/10/02/nat15.htm

PML-QA to ‘form’ govts in Centre, Punjab

By Our Staff Reporter

LAHORE, Oct 1: PML-QA Vice-President Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri says a daunting task before the leadership elected as a result of the general election will be striking a balance in the political and military leadership in a manner that the army returns to the barracks and politicians acquire their due role in governance.

Answering reporters’ questions at a “Meet the Press” programme of the Lahore Press Club on Tuesday, he said the army should be assured that political government would not interfere with its internal matters.

There should be no confrontation between the army and politicians in the future, he emphasized.

In response to a question, he said his party would form government at the centre and in the Punjab. In the NWFP and Balochistan it would form its coalition with the other parties.

In Sindh, he said it would be either the PPP or the PML-QA which would form coalition.

PERVAIZ ELAHI: Punjab PML-QA President Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi said on Tuesday it was the national security institutions, not Mian Nawaz Sharif, who had taken the decision of going for nuclear explosions in response to similar tests by India.

Talking to reporters, he said it was for this reason that the explosions had been delayed for six days.

The PML-QA leader said Ms Benazir Bhutto had said in a statement that Mr Sharif’s conversation with former US president Bill Clinton on the nuclear tests should be made public. Mr Sharif, he recalled, had told the US president that he did not want tests but it was the army which was not agreeing with his point of view.

As for the missiles programme, Pervaiz Elahi said it was also the result of the defence forces.

The PML-QA leader said that Indian Prime Minister Vajpeyee had come to Pakistan to “solve” the Kashmir dispute by declaring the Line of Control as international border. But, he said, it was the armed forces which had thwarted the bid. He said the Kashmir issue was conspicuous by its absence in the Lahore Declaration, but it was the army which got it included in it.

Meanwhile, the Punjab National Party has announced its unconditional support to the PML-QA.

NAHEED KHAN: Ms Benazir Bhutto’s political secretary Naheed Khan warned on Tuesday that manipulation of the election results would lead to a direct confrontation between the army and the people.

Talking to reporters at the office of PPP leader Munawwar Anjum, she said the government was involved in pre-poll rigging which was very dangerous for the country.

She said the army had no role to play in governance and if the PPP was voted to power, it would ensure that this provision was adhered to.

She was critical of the moves to make LFO protection a part of the legislators’ oath. She warned that such a move would curtail the life of the future parliament.

Ms Khan told a reporter that in case of free and fair elections, the PPP would sweep most of the seats.

64

300 foreign observers to monitor polls

By Tariq Butt

ISLAMABAD: More than 300 foreign observers will keep an eye on the October 10 elections to prepare their reports on the transparency, fairness and impartiality of the electoral exercise.

The largest brigade of observers represents the European Union (EU) that includes short-term and long-time observers. This contingent is followed by the Commonwealth observers in the numerical sense.

The EU has already created a stir among the circles of the Pakistan government due to leakage of its preliminary report which was disliked by the regime.

The Chief Election Commissioner Chief Justice (retd) Irshad Hassan Khan has been too happy in giving detailed briefings to different missions of the observers about the whole gamut of the electoral exercise and the steps and efforts of the Election Commission to hold them in a fair, free and transparent manner.

Representatives of different political parties have also given comprehensive briefings to the foreign observers, and some of them highlighted their grievances. Besides, the foreign observers have met senior government officials to know of their point of view on the electoral process.

Finally, they will be meeting President General Pervez Musharraf, who would detail the steps his government has taken to hold the elections and dispel the impression that his administration is supporting any political party or group.

Despite its reservations against certain observers, the government has not refused entry into Pakistan to any of them. In fact the Election Commission and the government have facilitated the observers to do their job smoothly.

65

http://www.dawn.com/2002/10/03/nat5.htm

Leghari vows to wipe out corruption

By Siddiq Baluch

QUETTA, Oct 2: Millat Party President Sardar Farooq Ahmed Khan Leghari has vowed to bring back the money plundered by political leaders during their rule.

Speaking at public meetings in Sibi and Mach, he said the original manifesto of Pakistan People’s Party had promised to restore the usurped rights of the downtrodden. The PPP implemented it as long as late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was its chief, he said. However, his heirs betrayed the party manifesto, programme and the masses and started plundering national resources, he alleged.

Farooq Leghari accused former prime ministers Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto of plundering the country. He alleged that they had taken around Rs120 billion outside the country.

He said his party, if voted to power, would bring the plundered money back and permanently block the path of corruption.

“We would ensure the legitimate rights of the poor people,” he said.

He said the Millat Party would provide jobs to people through economic development. He pledged to make the country a Muslim welfare state.

Sardar Yar Mohammed Rind, a Millat Party leader and chief of the Rind tribe, expressed his hope that the party would win with a massive majority.

He organized a reception at the Chakar-i-Azam Stadium in honour of Farooq Leghari and thousands others. He alleged that he had got the permission from the district coordination officer but the local Nazimeen had flooded the stadium with water sabotaging the reception.

Fateh Khan Khajjak, a candidate for the provincial assembly, also spoke.

Farooq Leghari was taken to Sibi from here in a procession.

BNM CANDIDATE: Balochistan National Movement leader Ayub Jattak has pledged that he will not disappoint the people if he is elected to the National Assembly.

Speaking at meetings in Karak, Ayub Jattak, a former state minister and joint candidate of Balochistan National Democratic Party, People’s Party Parliamentarians and BNM from Jhalawan, said he would take steps to improve the lot of the people.

BNDP President Sardar Sanaullah Zehri also spoke.

BSO: Balochistan Information Secretary Yunus Baluch told newsmen at Khuzdar Press Club that the BSO would support BNM candidates in the election. He said BNM had awarded tickets to candidates from the middle class.

Our Staff Correspondent adds: President of Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-i-Azam), Quetta, Robina Irfan on Wednesday refuted reports regarding revolt against the party’s provincial leadership on the awarding of party tickets.

Speaking at a press conference with women workers of the party, she said she was satisfied with the leadership’s decision on party tickets.

She denied allegations that the government was supporting PML-QA candidates. She said such allegations were being levelled by the parties that had been rejected by the people.

66

PML(Q) may yield 120 seats.

By Nusrat Javeed

ISLAMABAD: Some “power technicians”, monitoring the political scene for the military-led government of General Musharraf round the clock, are seriously wondering as to “why the PPPP should protest too much if it musters 55 to 60 seats,” out of a total of 272 for which the general election is held on October 10.

The said number can make the recently launched PPPP as the second biggest group after the Azhar-led faction of PML in the future house, looking more formidable after the addition of women and minority seats, which are to be proportionately allotted in ratio of the accumulated votes of directly contested bouts.

The News also has learnt it from highly reliable sources that the updated assessment by the official managers is conceding 120-plus seats to the Azhar-led faction. Though not providing a clear majority, the said number would certainly help the same party to negotiate power sharing with coalition partners after harnessing the support of women and minority members plus the representatives coming from the tribal areas. The joining of the future government by MQM, SDA and Farooq Leghari’s Millat Party is also taken for granted.

These projections should relieve the government. For, if proven right the same would definitely pre-empt the possibility of stirring the streets with allegations of blatant and mass scale rigging.

Since the PNA movement of 1977, which facilitated the imposition of martial law by General Zia, the parties of religious-right continue relishing the reputation of making or breaking a government through street agitation. That encouraged the political Maulanas of Pakistan to virtually blackmail every elected government since 1985. The so-called agencies" of the non-elected institutions of the state also found them very useful if an elected leader was seen as if getting out of his or her shoes.

General Zia winked some senators from the JUI of Maulana Samiul Haq in 1986 to push for an amendment in the constitution, enforcing “total Sharia,” when a prime minister nominated by him, Muhammad Khan Junejo, began having his own ideas.

The first government of Benazir Bhutto was compelled to earn the bad name by mishandling the agitation provoked by Salman Rushdie’s “Satanic Verses.” Qazi Hussain Ahmad pulled his Jamaat-e-Islami out of the IJI to stoke tensions between Ghulam Ishaq Khan and Nawaz Sharif in early 1990s.

After returning to the prime minister’s office in 1993, Ms. Bhutto indulged in undue pampering of Maulana Fazlur Rehman. His nominees also managed a truckload of permits for the supply of oil and other items of household consumption to Taliban in Afghanistan. His ardent opponents would call him Maulana Diesel" because of that.

As if to help President Leghari in dismissing the second Benazir government, Qazi Hussain Ahmad also dared the law enforcers for a showdown in the streets of Rawalpindi in 1993. Shahbaz Sharif refused to wink, however, when Jamaat-e-Islami tried to paint Lahore red during Vajpayee’s historic visit to Punjab’s metropolis in Feb 1999.

Yet the myth prevails that religious parties can tear every government down in Pakistan. Despite the impotence with which the same parties let their brethrens run for their lives during the recent bombing of Afghanistan by the Americans. They could also not stop General Musharraf from joining the “war on terrorism” through stirring and sustaining the street agitation.

The armchair analysts of the political scene can never comprehend the dynamics of street agitation. Political managers of this government are no exception. And, they have been having jitters over the blending of all religious-right of Pakistan in Mutthedda Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). Forgetting the sectarian divide, the said alliance is participating in the forthcoming elections as a single entity and with a common electoral symbol, the book.

Some anxious officials strongly feel that it is not to form or join the future government that MMA is campaigning for elections these days. Its real objective is to incite the street agitation with allegations of rigging, once the results are out. But MMA would not take off, if Azhar-led faction, widely perceived as "the king’s party, does not emerge as the majority party by the morning of October 11. Its becoming the “single largest party” may sound easy to swallow by the public.

Some managers, this correspondent talked to for gauging the official assessments of the forthcoming elections, also appeared relaxed in reporting that MMA might not have anything to complain, once the count is done. Separately, two very dependable sources also claimed that MMA could “get 30 to 35 seats from the directly contested lot of the national assembly.”

Parties of the religious-right never had such a respectable number in all the previous elections of Pakistan. In the non-party polls of 1985, Jamaat-e-Islami had no competition from any of the recognized players of the electoral games. “The Jihad” in Afghanistan was still on and pretty beneficial to the JI. But not more than ten persons could return to the national assembly on its ticket. The party could also not savour the same number in all the four elections held since 1985.

The possibility of stirring the streets with allegations of rigging would doubly be scuttled, according to official monitors of the political scene, “if PPPP gets a respectable number of 55 to 60.”

A senior leader of the Azhar-led faction, who is often found visiting the officials of invisible outfits also told this correspondent that “Makhdoom Amin Fahim should really feel great, if this number (55 to 60) returns to the national assembly under his leadership. After all, when Ms. Bhutto was very much present to lead a spirited campaign in 1990, not more than 40 persons could get elected to the national assembly on PPP ticket. Her presence and campaigning produced the pathetic results in 1997. Only 18 persons returned to the house on PPP ticket that year. And all came from one province only, i.e., Sindh.”

A senior official shared his perception and kept insisting: “PPPP should always remember the dismal showing of 1997. That is the benchmark Ms Bhutto should employ for comparing what her followers might get by October 11.” With malicious pleasure he also recalled that in 1997, Ms. Bhutto’s party could not get even one seat from the largest province of Pakistan, Punjab.

Even if they get one seat from the same province this time around, it would be a hundred per cent gain. Though I expect them to get more and a respectable number. Protesting over the possibly reasonable score would not be accepted by the people who are not willing to fight against the government for a political party anyway," dismissively concluded he.

67

http://www.dawn.com/2002/10/04/top3.htm

No election campaign after Oct 8, says EC

By Our Staff Reporter

ISLAMABAD, Oct 3: The Election Commission on Thursday said the election campaign would come to an end at midnight on Oct 8. An announcement by the EC said the political parties and candidates had to wind up their campaigns 48 hours before polling.

The commission said that any person found violating the provision could face imprisonment for up to six months, Rs1,000 fine or both.

“The period allowed for election campaign for general elections scheduled to be held on Oct 10 shall come to an end with effect from the midnight falling between Oct 8 and Oct 9,” the announcement said.

The EC requested the political parties and candidates to follow the provisions of law and stop their election campaign accordingly so that polls might be held on Oct 10 in an orderly and peaceful manner.

It said that no person could, within a radius of 400 yards of the polling station on the polling day, canvasses for votes; persuade any elector not to vote; exhibit, except with the permission of the returning officer and at a place reserved for the candidate or his election agent beyond the radius of 100 yards of the polling station, any notice, sign, banner or flag designed to encourage the electors to vote or discourage the electors from voting, for any candidate.

68

http://www.nation.com.pk/daily/today/main/top16.htm

The uncrowned king

From Zamir Sheikh
Whether it was a tactical mistake or a sheer bad luck, Makhdoom Amin Fahim - the scion of the late Makhdoom Talibul Moula -could not get himself elected unopposed.

The Makhdooms of Hala, who hold the scepter of the shrine of “Makhdoom Nooh Sarwar” has remained the uncrowned King of Hala sub-division; their rule is extended to Matiari. Since the PPP inception, Hala has been the bastion of Bhutto Power.

Now that the PPP-P is in a state of limbo in its one-time stronghold it is mainly because of a miscalculation of the party high command. To be precise, it was Makhdoom Amin Fahim who was responsible for all this.

The Makhdoom in a bid to save the seat of his son Makhdoom Jameeluzzaman, alienated Pir Noor Mohammad Shah, popularly known as Nooral Shah. A large number of candidates including Makhdoom Fazal Hussain had filed their nomination papers from NA-218, though none of them has any chance of winning this seat against the powerful Makhdoom. But Fahim’s desire to return unopposed constrained him to compel his opponents to withdraw from the contest. However, Makhdoom Fazal Hussain was a different proposition.

The PPP top brass, according to the party sources had decided to award ticket to Pir Amir Ali Hashmi, the son of former PPP MPA, Pir Noor Mohammad Shah, for PS-44, Matirai, but Makhdoom Amin Fahim had awarded ticket to Makhdoom Fazal Hussain as a quid pro quo for NA-218 who withdrew his candidacy from the said national assembly seat as well as from PS-43 against Makhdoom Jameeluzzaman. This has caused a setback to the PPP as Hashmi holds a lot of influence in Matirai. The move of Makhdoom Amin Fahim caused much annoyance to the disciples of Pir Nooral Shah.

The withdrawal of Makhdoom Fazal Hussain from NA-218 did not serve the purpose as three other candidates are still in the field against Makhdoom Amin Fahim. They are Syed Shahabuddin Shah Hussaini of the PML (Q), Piral Majeedano of the PPP (SB) and Rasool Bux Memon of the MQM. Majeedano and Memon have no standing and it will be surprising if they obtain a few hundred votes. Piral Majeedano has been nominated by the PPP (SB) not to give a walkover to the Makhdoom.
However, Syed Shahabuddin Shah commands considerable influence in Matiari but he is not a serious candidate for this seat as he is contesting from NA-221 against PPP candidate Ameer Ali Shah Jamote. The Makhdooms of Hala stand out for their commitment and loyalty to PPP and the Bhutto family.

There was a time when all bigwigs and close friends including the talented cousin of late Z.A Bhutto had left the party in times of trouble. But like father like son, Makhdoom Amin Fahim - the present Gaddi-nasheen - always remained as loyal with the PPP as was his late father Makhdoom Talibul Moula. Somehow Amin Fahim has been able to convince the party leadership as well as his voters that he was promised a top slot in the present power setup but he spurned all such offers of the 'makers and breakers’of the power politics.

Passing through a critical phase and compelled by certain laws made by the Military Government, the PPP leadership had to change the party’s nomenclature for contesting the ensuing general elections. It was Makhdoom Amin Fahim, a trustworthy aide of Ms. Benazir Bhutto, who was assigned the task of steering the party out of the prevalent crisis; he was made the Chairman of the PPP Parliamentarian. Generally Makhdooms don’t visit the people; it is the people who visit them. But Amin Fahim has to be an exception to the decades old rule of his distinguished family; he goes to the voters and receives them at his place. He is performing the task well.

Political observers believe that the PPP-P would bag many more seats, a moving spirit behind it would be Amin Fahim.

69

http://frontierpost.com.pk/main.asp?id=3&date1=10/4/2002

Another batch of 20 EU observers arrives

ISLAMABAD: Another batch of 20 European Union (EU) Election Observation Mission (EUEOM) arrived here on Thursday, says a press release.

Speaking on the occasion of the arrival the Short Term Observers, the EUEOM Head John Cushnahan said that the final group of observers will allow us to carry out our duties thoroughly and in accordance with the internationally recognized guidelines which we have strictly adhered to date.

These Short Term Observers will be joined by another group early next week, bringing the total number of team members from 14 European Union countries to 90.

The newly arrived Short Term Observers will undergo a detailed orientation and training programme in Islamabad before being deployed in all four provinces.

Together with the mission’s core team, all the Long and Short Term Observers will remain in the country until after the elections.

The EUEOM has observers covering thirteen locations including Islamabad, Lahore, Karachi, Peshawar, Quetta, Rawalpindi, Hyderabad, Sukkur, Jhelum, Gujranwala, Mingora and Multan.

The Mission’s role is to observe the entire electoral process including preparations for the election, the parties campaigns, polling day activities, counting procedures and the aggregation of results.

All observers report back to a core team of Islamabad who have been working in the country since August 4.

The Mission plans to release a preliminary statement on its findings on the elections within 48 hours of the close of the count.

This will be followed within weeks by a final report, it said.

70

Polls result likely to match those of '88

By Tariq Butt

ISLAMABAD: The mandate to be thrown up by the general elections 2002 is likely to be a repeat of the outcome of the party-based 1988 polls, held after eleven years.

The 1988 exercise participated by all the political parties was absolutely “managed” (remember the formation of the Islami Jamhoori Ittehad against the PPP). A similar scenario now surrounds the October 10 process in the sense that the exercise too is controlled.

Young and inexperienced Benazir Bhutto was reluctantly made prime minister at the time but only with the help of smaller parliamentary groups, independents and a few turncoats. Her numerical strength did not enable her to independently form government. Because of its numerical weakness, she always remained a wavering premier and hostage to weather cocks. This was the gift of a hung parliament.

The real contest in the elections 2002 is between the prop- and anti-military government parties. The split of Muslim League votes will naturally go to the benefit of the PPPP, which has its vote bank not only intact but also swelled considerably. This lone factor brightens the chances of PPPP emerging as the single largest party but not with a convincing majority in the parliament in a position to form government single-handed.

There has been a quiet adjustment of seats between the PPPP and PML-N, unnoticed by many. Resultantly, the PML-N will not get dividends, but the PPPP certainly will. This adjustment has been the PML-N’s decision to put up its candidates so that the League (or anti-PPPP) votes are split paving the way for the success of the PPPP candidates and defeat of the PML-QA nominees.

The patronage factor will undoubtedly greatly benefit the PML-QA, the King’s Party. Besides, the PML-QA has an added advantage that other parties don’t and that is that it has got along several candidates, who, in their own right, are very influential in their respective constituencies.

The tie is between the PPPP and PML-QA as to which will get bigger numerical strength in the parliament. Although it would be too difficult for the powers that be to ignore the PPPP if it emerges as the single largest parliamentary party, one thing is sure that all the smaller groups including the MQM and independents would go with the PML-QA. An additional factor that the PML-QA would have would be its possible government in Punjab, an expectation that would make smaller groups and independents sway towards it tremendously enabling it to make government in the centre.

The PML-QA is likely to fare quite well in the rural areas where the “biradri” phenomenon and “thana, ketchery” culture play a dominant role. Additionally, the personal influence and character of the candidate is always considered a weighty factor.

But in the urban areas, PML-QA is unlikely to get any significant number of seats. Here, the PPPP and PML-N would bag majority of seats. Projections of different polls surveys and claims and counter-claims by political parties notwithstanding, it is quite difficult to predict the results of the October 10 elections.

71

http://thefridaytimes.hypermart.net/

PPP poised to win maximum NA seats in Sindh

Salman Hussein

says despite low morale because of Ms Bhutto’s ouster from the contest, the party remains strong in the province

With the majority of Sindh’s traditional political heavyweights out of the running, while others eyeing the top slot in the province, Sindh polls and their results would be an interesting exercise to observe.

Some of the province’s renowned politicos sitting it out include former caretaker premier and convenor of national Alliance, Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi, his two sons Murtaza and Masroor Jatoi, former Sindh chief minister Mumtaz Ali Bhutto, former premier Benazir Bhutto, her spouse Asif Ali Zardari and his father Hakim Ali Zardari, Pir Pagaro, and former PPP provincial ministers Nadir Ali Magsi and Pir Mazar-ul-Haq.

Those contesting the upcoming elections include many possible contenders for the office of chief minister. Possible future Sindh chief ministers include Syed Muzaffar Hussain Shah, former bureaucrat and convenor of Sindh Democratic Alliance Imtiaz Sheikh, former chief minister Liaquat Jatoi, Sindh PPP president Nisar Khuhro, former chief minister Syed Qaim Ali Shah and former provincial minister Syed Zaffar Leghari.

While it is unlikely Ms Bhutto will get the court to overturn her disqualification from the October polls, her party will most probably still emerge as the single largest vote-winner in the province. Even reported government (intelligence) projections indicate the party is poised to win nearly half of NA seats from Sindh despite low morale in the wake of Ms Bhutto’s ouster.

The PPP has a clear edge in the four National Assembly (NA) seats from Larkana — NA-204, NA-205, NA-206 and NA-207.

The party also has a strong position in NA-209 Jacobabad, the traditional seat of Mir Hazar Khan Bijarani. After a brief stint with the PPP (Shaheed Bhutto), Bijarani returned to the PPP fold. A well-respected politician, he has won from this seat more than once and is expected to win again.
Another sure-fire PPP seat is NA-213 Nawabshah, the traditional seat of the Zardaris. In the absence of Hakim and his son Asif Ali Zardari, the party ticket went to Azra Zardari, who is expected to win with a comfortable margin.

However, there are other NA constituencies where the PPP may face tough competition.

In NA-208 Jacobabad, differences persist between veteran League politician Elahi Bux Soomro, now a PML(Q) candidate, and Sindh governor Mohammadmian Soomro, his nephew. Governor Soomro wanted to resign and fight from this constituency but Uncle Soomro refused to surrender the seat to him. While family sources said the governor had bowed out and the matter had been sorted out, facts on the ground indicate to the contrary. Despite being backed by the

Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-e-Azam), a party fully supported by the military regime, and the Sindh Democratic Alliance (SDA), another pro-Musharraf group, Elahi Bux is facing “strong difficulties” because of his nephew. Yet, PPP’s Aijaz Jhakrani is likely to face a tough fight from the elder Soomro, who still has an edge over his PPP rival.

NA-210 Jacobabad is also expected to see a close contest between PML (Q)'s candidate, former provincial cabinet minister Saleem Jan Mazari, and PPP’s Imran Bijarani. Reports indicate Mir Hazar Khan Bijarani has refused to back Mr Imran Bijarani due to an internal tribal feud. This situation, if allowed to persist, will help Jan Mazari, who has close ties with the establishment. It is likely that he, along with SDA’s Imtiaz Sheikh, will play a significant role in the future government.

The PPP is also facing difficulties in NA-211 Naushero Feroz, where its candidate Zafar Ali Shah is facing Khalid Jatoi. Shah also recently returned to the PPP after quitting Ghinwa Bhutto’s PPP (SB). While he enjoys good reputation among voters, many PPP (SB) workers are not happy with his decision. This, say sources, is likely to affect his performance in the polls.

While PPP-Parliamentarians (PPPP) President Makhdoom Amin Fahim is expected to win in NA-218 in Hyderabad, he will face some competition from the PML (Q)'s Shahabuddin Shah Hussaini. Hussaini enjoys the support of many local PPP leaders, including former member of Sindh assembly, Noor Shah.

NA-229 in Tharparkar is one of the PPP’s weakest constituencies. The seat will likely be won by Arbab Rahim, who has significantly more support than his PPP rival, Gul Mohammad Lath.

A close contest is expected in NA-231 in Dadu I between PML-(Q) and SDA’s joint candidate Syed Jalal Mahmood Shah, the grandson of GM Syed, and the PPP’s Nawab Abdul Ghani Talpur. Shah is also a cousin of District Nazim Malik Asad Sikandar. Interestingly, another cousin of Sikandar’s is contesting against the PPP on a provincial assembly seat. According to reports from the area, the nazim is supporting both his cousins.

The PPP is expected to fare slightly better in NA-232 Dadu II, where its candidate Rafiq Ahmed Jamali is contesting against PML (Q)'s Ahmed Khan and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement’s (MQM) Hussain Bux Solangi. However, the two anti-PPP parties are negotiating a seat adjustment, and if they arrive at an agreement, the competition in this constituency will be close.

The competition will also be close in NA-233 Dadu III, where Liaqat Jatoi, who quit PML (Nawaz) to join PML (Q), is facing PPP’s Rafiq Ahmed Mehr. Mehr has previously won elections from this constituency; however, political observers believe Jatoi has a strong chance since his father, Abdul Hameed Jatoi, was earlier elected from this constituency.
PPP candidate Fida Hussain Dero is expected to face a tough contest in NA-236 Sanghar, despite support from the Jam family. He is running against Pir Pagaro’s nominee Mohammad Khan Junejo, the son of former PPP leader Shah Nawaz Junejo. Dero, a close aide of Asif Zardari’s, was defeated by Jam Mashooq in the 1997 elections.

NA-237 Thatta is another difficult seat for the PPP, due to the popularity of provincial minister Ajaz Shirazi, whose cousin Ayaz Shirazi is facing PPP’s Dr Abdul Wahid Soomro. Ayaz Shirazi has many factors going in his favour, other than support from the establishment, and is the consensus candidate of SDA.

In other districts, like Khairpur, Sukkur and Mirpurkhas, the PPP is expected to win the NA seats; however, the MQM has a strong chance of winning the provincial assembly seat from Mirpurkhas.

The PPP is also expected to face tough competition in provincial assembly constituencies. Perhaps the most interesting provincial assembly seat is PS-11 in Shikarpur, where SDA chief Imtiaz Sheikh will face the contest of his life from PPP’s Agha Tariq.

Sheikh is a former bureaucrat and resigned from service to enter politics. After reports that former Sindh Assembly speaker Ghaus Bux Mehr was supporting Agha Tariq and that Tariq was, in turn, supporting him in his NA constituency, Sheikh brought Mehr to the Karachi Press Club to demonstrate his support. However, some PPP sources claim Mehr has extended tacit support to Tariq.

In PS-74, Pir Mazhar’s daughter Marvi will face SDA’s Syed Mohammad Shah while in PS-76 Khairpur Nathan Shah, PPP’s Syed Zafar Ali Leghari is fighting against PML (Q)'s Liaquat Jatoi. Jatoi has the support of the establishment. Another tough seat for the PPP is PS-77 Mehr, where Liaquat Jatoi’s brother, Sadaqat Ali Jatoi, is contesting against PPP’s Shafiq Ahmed Mehssar.

PPP’s Syed Qaim Ali Shah will likely win from his constituency; however, the party will probably lose to the PML (F)'s Syed Muzaffar Hussain Shah, who is contesting from his traditional seat.

Meanwhile, according to sources, PPP stalwarts Syed Khurshid Shah from Sukkur and Pir Aftab Shah Jillani from Mirpurkhas will probably face little difficulty in winning their seats, unless the establishment springs a surprise on them.

72

http://www.dawn.com/2002/10/05/nat16.htm

PTI, PAT strike seat adjustment

KARACHI, Oct. 4: Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf and Pakistan Awami Tehrik on Friday announced election adjustments at Karachi level at a few national and Sindh assembly seats. Speaking at a joint press conference at Karachi Press Club , the Sindh PTI’s President Amanullah Paracha and PAT Sindh’s President Kazi Zahid said as there were a lot of similarities in the manifestos of PTI and PAT, both the parties have decided to jointly contest the elections.

“We would announce more electoral adjustments within a couple of days,” said Kazi Zahid.

In Karachi, he said the PAT would support PTI’s candidate Amanullah Paracha at NA-239, where as in return, PTI would support PAT’s candidate at NA-258 Iftikhar Shah Bukhari and PS- 130 candidate Ashfaq Ayubi.

He said his party was in close contact with the PTI.-APP

73

http://www.dawn.com/2002/10/05/nat7.htm

MMA undecided on joining next govt

Bureau Report

PESHAWAR, Oct 4: Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal senior vice-president Qazi Hussain Ahmad has claimed that the MMA has yet to take decision to join the next government. During a brief chat with Dawn at Al-Markaz-i-Islami , the Jamaat-i-Islami provincial secretariat here on Thursday, the JI chief said the alliance would take any decision after the new parliament came into existence.

“We are not in a hurry about that,” Qazi remarked when he was asked that whether the alliance would join the next government.

He maintained that in the prevailing situation the chances of free and fair elections were very bleak. The government, he said, was using all tactics to bring favourite people into the next parliament.

He claimed that the alliance had collected evidence about pre- poll rigging and alleged that candidates were being pressurised to support the Kings party.

Later, addressing a public meeting in Badbare, a suburbs of Peshawar, Qazi Hussain Ahmad criticised former prime minister Benazir Bhutto for issuing pro-US statements. He said the former prime minister betrayed the nation and offered her services to US administration to serve its interests.

He said the US government had put pressure on President Gen Pervez Musharraf to join the socalled war against terrorism and begin operation against Al Qaeda activists and withdraw support from the Taliban.

He hoped that the people would reject pro-US and secular elements in the general elections and urged the masses to elect honest and dedicated people. The JI chief said the MMA was determined to promulgate Islamic law in the country in letter and spirit and provide social and economic justice to the people.

74

http://frontierpost.com.pk/main.asp?id=6&date1=10/6/2002

**All set for upcoming elections **

ISLAMABAD (APP): Election Commission has finalised all arrangements to conduct forthcoming general elections in a free, fair and impartial atmosphere.Talking to this news agency, Secretary Election Commission of Pakistan Hasan Muhammad said all the necessary election material has been delivered to the concerned Returning Officers.

He said 95 per cent work of printing of more than 150 million ballot papers for the forthcoming general elections for National and Provincial Assemblies have been completed while remaining will be completed by tomorrow.

All logistic and other arrangements have also been finalised and necessary guidelines have been conveyed to the polling personnel to hold these elections in a fair and free atmosphere.

The Secretary Election Commission said more than 72 million voters in the country are eligible to use their right of franchise in the elections.

As both National and Provincial Assembly elections are being held on the same day, therefore, the Election Commission has made arrangements to differentiate between the ballot papers for National and Provincial Assemblies.

He said the colour of ballot paper for National Assembly will be Green while for the Provincial Assemblies, it will be white.

The Secretary Election Commission said the ballot papers have been printed under tight security at Pakistan Printing Corporation in Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi and Election Commission took special security measures for the safety of ballot papers.

Referring to training of the polling staff, he said, special training was imparted to conduct orderly polling.

The law and order situation, he said, was also reviewed and a meeting in this regard was held the other day under the chairmanship of Chief Election Commissioner Chief Justice (Retd) Irshad Hasan the other day.

The Secretary said all the provinces have assured the Election Commission that adequate arrangements have been made to maintain peace on the day of polling to provide congenial atmosphere to the voters.

Chief Election Commissioner will conduct surprise visits to various polling stations throughout the country, he added.

All the four members of the Commission, he said, will also conduct surprise visits to various polling stations in their respective areas.

The members of the Commission are the judges of four high courts of the all the provinces.

The polling will continued without any break from 8.00 am to 5.00 pm and the counting of the votes will start soon after the polling ends, he added.

The Presiding Officers will announce the results of their polling stations and provide carbon copy to the polling agents of the political parties present on this occasion.

The Secretary said preliminary results of the election will be announced by the Returning Officer of the constituency on receipt of the statements of the count from all Polling stations in his jurisdiction and a copy thereof shall be affixed outside the office of Returning Officer for information of the general public.

He said the Returning Officer then convey result ofelection to Election Commission Secretariat, Islamabad from where consolidated results of each constituency will be announced.

He said appropriate arrangements have been made in the Election Commission Secretariat, Islamabad for receiving preliminary results from the Returning Officers for National Assembly and Provincial Assemblies Constituencies.

75

http://www.dawn.com/2002/10/06/nat4.htm

Voter indifference marks electioneering

By Habib Khan Ghori

KARACHI, Oct 5: With only four days left for going to the polls, the election campaign still remains a dull and drab affair as it has failed to create any interest or excitement among the voters. Even the partyless local bodies elections held in July 2001 were not characterized by such voter indifference.

Banners and posters carrying election symbols of the parties are in far less numbers than what were during the electioneering of the local bodies elections. The only difference during this election campaign is that many candidates have put up lifesize posters of their leaders and their election symbols at vantage points in the city. But such banners and poster are only on main roads and roundabouts. Very few corner meetings have so far been held by election candidates. In many areas candidates and their workers are yet to contact voters to ask for their voters. Voters know their candidates only through banners, posters and the media. Considering this situation, it would be interesting to see how candidates mobilize voters on the polling day.

According to political observers, one of the main reasons for the failure of the election campaign in creating interest among the voters is uncertainty regarding the holding of elections on the scheduled date, that is, Oct 10. This uncertainty resulted from India’s refusal to withdraw its troops from the borders and blaming Pakistan for all acts of violence and terrorism occurring in India and in occupied Kashmir.

Provocative and threatening statements of Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee led candidates to feel that if border skirmishes increased, this could provide a good excuse to the government to postpone the elections.

The fear of such an eventuality prevented most candidates from spending money on their election campaigns. This also kept political workers from fully involving themselves in the campaign.

Analysts say this general election would prove to be an election in which the lowest amount of money would be spent in the electoral history of the country. Not only have candidates abstained from spending money on their election campaigns, but those who usually spend black money on their favourite candidates have not it found it worthwhile to “make investment in the elections” as they do not expect any favourable return.

Political parties have described some of the conditions laid down in the code of conduct for the general elections as debilitating. The time given for outdoor electioneering campaign was 40 days, which was not sufficient to kick off campaign in the prevailing circumstances when the top leadership of all the three major parties, the Pakistan People’s Party, Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and Muttahida Qaumi Movement, are in exile.

Their second-ranking leadership, however, in order to keep their supporters’ interest alive and their morale high held out hopes of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif returning home to lead the election campaign. Although the government, even from the highest office of President Gen Pervez Musharraf himself, repeatedly discounted hopes about the two leaders taking part in electioneering, the second-ranking leadership of these parties filed nomination papers of their leaders from different constituencies in a bid to prove their point that the government could not block the return of their leaders and stop them from taking part in the elections.

However when the leaders did not return, the parties decided to release their much-delayed election manifestos. So in a situation when there is no leadership of national level to draw the attention of the masses, convincing voters about the promises made in manifestos appears to be a very difficult task.

76

Procedure for reserved seats being changed

By Amir Mateen

ISLAMABAD: The military government is mulling over last-minute changes in the election procedure for 60 women and 10 minority reserve seats in the National Assembly and 128 women and 23 minority seats in the provincial Assemblies.

While some political parties may cry foul over the changes “just three days” before the elections, official sources say this was being done to remove anomalies in the electoral procedure.

Sources say a draft of further amendments to the “conduct of General elections order, 2002” has already been sent to President Musharraf to change the formula of elections. Official sources have finally realized that the procedure of the electing women and minority seats, devised by the National Reconstructions Bureau (NRB) after years of “research”, is full of holes.

The thrust of this new set of amendments is to remove the clause (in the Chief Executive’s Order No 7 of 2002) according to which “a political party securing less than five per centum of the total number of general seats in the National Assembly (as well as provincial Assemblies) shall not be entitled to any seats reserved for women or non Muslims.”

This clause, among many other anomalies, particularly hurts the interests of small provinces, de-enfranchising virtually all nationalist parties. According to existing rules a party with less than 14 seats (5 per cent of 272=13.6) in the National Assembly is not entitled to any reserve women or minority seats. This means that ANP, BNP, BNM, BNDP, JWP, PPP (Sherpao), who are not likely to secure 14 National Assembly seats, will not get any share from the women and minority members pie. This might also affect MQM and MMA if they secured less than 14 seats. But the primary reasons for the last-minute change in the rules, say sources, is that this is affecting the officially backed Grand Alliance.

The GA, which is not likely to cross the 14 number mark, even if one takes into account the seats won by SDA, is all set lose its share from the women and minority quota. This also means that Ayela Malik, Sumera Malik and Mira Leghari, besides others from the list of Farooq Leghari’s relatives, will not make it to the National Assembly through the backdoor of reserve seats.

Political pundits now realize the sagacity behind PML-Q’s insistence for a solo electoral fight. In a scenario where small groups (GA, ANP, BNP, BNM, PMAP, BNDP, FATA and independents) are excluded from sharing women seats, the biggest winners will be the Q League, securing the biggest chunk from Punjab’s 35 women seats. The other beneficiary, of course, will be PPP, covering the Punjab margin from Sindh’s 14 seats. But the nationalist parties in Balochistan are the biggest loser under the existing arrangement. Of its three women reserve seats the only parties capable of securing a share in the pie are PML-Q, PML- N and PPP, provided they win a national seat from the province.

However, the MMA being a strong party in Balochistan may get a better share if its overall total, excluding FATA, reaches 14. That being the case, the MMA under existing rules may also benefit from the exclusion of ANP in the Frontier.

Similarly, small parties stand to lose their share in 10 minority seats as well. But it’s interesting that under the existing rules the religious combine MMA may also get a share from minority seats. “Imagine a Christian maulvi,” said a source at the Election Commission in a lighter vein.

The idea behind the ‘five per cent’ clause, say its defenders, is to forge national cohesion. It will discourage nationalists and smaller parties and force them to join larger groups. But the problem with the existing rules is not just about the denial of representation to small parties. There is also confusion about the way this formula will work out.

It is not clear as to how will the gap created by the excluded parties and independents be filled up. Will the share of ineligible divided among the eligible parties? What about the rounding of the fractions? This is important as a small difference can mean losing or winning of the seat.

Then there are also concerns that FATA and Islamabad have not been given representation in women reserve seats, though the latter is represented by a woman in the Senate. Official sources are mum if the new amendment will consider the weightage of votes instead of seats in dividing reserve seats on the basis of proportional representation.

Analysts believe any change of rule at this stage, though justifiable given the scale of anomalies, will be used by opposition parties. After all, the change in the rules will have a bearing on the election results.

It’s obvious that the party winning in Punjab, which has 35 women seats, will get the maximum benefit from the reserve seats. It’s interesting that the party most excited about women seats is the MMA, the only party that has fielded candidates for all 35 Punjab seats, topped by Qazi Hussain Ahmad’s daughter Samia Raheel Qazi.

If the five per cent clause is withdrawn, and there are no independents, the MMA will require at least five members for Ms Qazi to win a Punjab seat. It remains ironic that JUI, a parent party of Taliban, will now have women as their members in Assemblies.

PML-Q has fielded about 26 women candidates. The list is topped by Mehnaz Rafi, seconded by Tariq Aziz’s wife Dr Hajira and former minister Dr Attya, whose political career shines only in dictatorships, ranks eighth in the Punjab list of PML-Q members.

The other minister adjusted in Balochistan’s quota is, in case she loses direct elections, Zobaida Jalal. Significantly, she has been given a slot higher than former Deputy Chairman Noor Jahan Panezai. There are reservations among PML-Q workers over the nomination of Kashmala Tariq and Shehzadi Umar Zaidi Tiwana, both nominees of party chief Mian Azhar.

The PPP list from Punjab is topped by, who else, Nahid Khan. Benazir has adjusted some genuine party workers this time around, including the late Sheikh Rashid’s wife Begum Shakeela. But Embassat Khan, a former wife of Yousaf Salahuddin, is not definitely one of those ‘worker types’. But then the PPP is not likely to make it to the slot of 18 in Punjab. Begum Nusrat Bhutto’s political secretary Rukhsana Bangash has also got herself adjusted in the Punjab list.

Another important name in the women’s list is Gohar Ayub’s wife Mrs Zaib Gohar Ayub, who strangely has been cold-shouldered to the fourth slot in the PML-Q priority, a figure the party is unlikely to achieve in the Frontier quota of eight seats.

PML-N’s list is topped by Javed Hashmi’s wife Maimona on the number two slot in priority list is one and only Begum Ishrat Ashraf, followed by Tehmina Daultana, which betrays her insecurity about losing her direct election to cousin Shahida Daultana.

77

http://www.nation.com.pk/daily/today/main/top7.htm

The PMs in waiting – II

By Sarmad Bashir

The Punjab has thrown up the largest squad of prime ministerial aspirants. From Farooq Leghari to Mian Azhar, Abida and Fakhar, and from Allama Tahirul Qadri to Imran Khan, all these leading lights of the national politics are aspiring for the top slot.

Oh, and don’t forget another important name that of my friend Khurshid Mehmud Kasuri who is inexplicably optimistic about his rise to the pinnacle of political power.

There’s no reason to disbelieve them all that they had separately been offered Prime Ministership by the powers that be. Now what they need to do is win their respective seats and have these promises fulfilled. Aren’t a few of them fearing to lose?

They were all King’s men; most of them still are. They were to be part of the proposed Grand National Alliance—the expanded version of government-backed National Alliance, which now only has Chairman Mustafa Jatoi’s NPP and Leghari’s Millat Party as its main components. Distribution of the Alliance’s offices was a real obstacle in holding together the military junta’s one-time blue-eyed chaps.

But the trouble with these guys was that they have been pushing others around so long that they forgot they’re vulnerable enough not to stand a little shoving themselves. They had no love lost for one other; the only thing dear to each is his personal interest. The Chaudhrys of Gujrat are only aspiring for the Punjab Chief Ministership—a dream that may now come true after several failed attempts in the past. But at the same time they don’t want to see any such person become PM who may eclipse their political role in the forthcoming democratic set-up.

If the PM has to be from the Punjab then the Chaudhrys had Mian Azhar as their best bet as opposed to Farooq Leghari and Imran Khan. They knew he would remain indebted to them for all those favours done to him in the past. They saved Azhar’s party presidency he had almost lost to Pir Pagaro a couple of months ago when an exercise was carried out to reunite Muslim League factions. They were justified in expecting him to remain loyal, his machinations that broke him from his previous political masters notwithstanding.

As for Begum Abida Hussain and Fakhar Imam, once this enlightened couple was Mian Azhar’s patrons; he would always look up to them for guidance on political matters he failed to understand. But now that they actually need him to reciprocate he would be of no help to them. There were two problems; One, Mian Azhar could do nothing to help them climb to the pinnacle as he himself is the candidate for PMship and two, he is virtually nobody in the Q-League to decide such important matters. It will continue to be the prerogative of the Kingmakers from Gujrat. Look, how much pain they would now take to ensure victories of Abida Hussain from Jhang and her spouse from Khanewal.

Come Leghari and Imran. The only way Chaudhrys could keep them from grabbing the top slot is to make their contests difficult on their national assembly seats; aren’t the Gujrati Guys a little too smart? That was the part of their election planning to oust the two gentlemen from electoral politics. Taking care of this special assignment in Mianwali is the Rokris and Shadikhels and in Dera Ghazi Khan it is Farooq Leghari’s own cousin Maqsood who had to settle his own scores with him; Sardar Zulfiqar Ali Khosa’s old rivalry with the former President may turn out to be a blessing in disguise for Q-League.

They wouldn’t have liked their plan leaked, but once it became public they showed up least bothered. They knew if it came to the crunch they could take up the cudgels against the one-time cricketing hero, but probably they’re not aware of the joke being taken a little too far. They take pride in their political manoeuvrings but one thing that makes them uncomfortable is talk about their wealth. They don’t allow anyone to welch on their money and would also be put off to see someone call them looters. They are right in a way; when they don’t challenge others’ integrity they also want others to mind their business.

Coming of age, Imran went a little too far in attacking the Chaudhrys and their patron-saints, when he found the government working on a plan to defeat him in his hometown. No longer a kid, he can understand very well how his opponent Obaidullah Shadikhel was finally vindicated of all the charges that had him once landed in the custody of NAB.
Desperation it may be but he would go attacking all those trying to ensure his defeat. Last time when his party suffered a rout he had a justification that it was just months old; it’s no longer so. Now the only way he could settle his scores with his opponents is to highlight their corruption to an extent where their patron-saints may think twice before giving them a responsible position. For this he may be pinning his hopes on General Musharraf who is a signatory to the Transparency International’s move against corruption.

78

http://www.dawn.com/2002/10/07/top4.htm

MMA vows to carry out land reforms

By Our Staff Reporter

ISLAMABAD, Oct 6: The chief of Jamaat-i-Islami and vice president of the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal, Qazi Hussain Ahmed, has allayed the fears that if voted to power, the religious alliance would bring about theocracy. He said that the Ulema leading the alliance were educated , forward looking and voicing along with other political forces, for the restoration of 1973 Constitution".

Talking to Dawn Qazi Hussain Ahmed said that the MMA would disband all the Jagirdaris (big land ownerships) and carry out fresh land reforms to put a limit to land holdings in the country.

The MMA leader declared, if voted to power, Pakistan would maintain the principle of peaceful co-existence with all its neighbours, America and other countries on equal footings by upholding its sovereignty and keeping national interests supreme.

He said no country including the US could be allowed to maintain airports and bases in other countries and “we will continue to oppose her presence on our and Afghanistan soil”.

To a query, he said: “We do not recognize the American installed government in Kabul as the majority of Afghans do not accept it.”

About the Kashmir issue, he said: “We believe that Kashmir is a disputed territory, whose people are fighting for its liberation from the Indian hegemony.” The militancy, he said, was the only way out left for Kashmiris as long as India was not ready to come to the negotiating table.

He, however, expressed hope that a civilian government in Pakistan would be able to ease tension between the two countries as it would be in a better position to deal with India.

Replying to a question about the politicians and political parties inviting and welcoming the military to take hold of the reigns by toppling civilian governments, the MMA leader dismissed the impression that his party had ever welcomed the military coup of Gen Musharraf.

He said: “I want to put the record straight by recalling that our party’s central executive was in session when the coup tookplace and it passed a resolution demanding of the military establishment to hand over the power to a civilian interim set- up.”

79

General’s Election. From Time

You’d think there’d be plenty of campaign issues to discuss in Pakistan these days—especially in a general election that is supposed to restore democracy after three years of one-man rule. But at a rally not far from the Afghan border, in a village at the bottom of a ravine where there are more goats than party faithful, there is only one issue that counts: America the Awful. A speaker rises from beneath a broad tree and shouts, “Americans are killing our Muslim brothers and sisters in Afghanistan. And soon, they will come to Pakistan!”

The voice bellows not from some bearded firebrand but from Sumbal, a five-year-old girl in a bubble-gum-pink smock. After her speech, delivered with a child’s pure-spun rage, Sumbal encounters TIME’s correspondent, an American citizen. Trembling, she hides behind her teacher’s legs and tries to bury her face in the baggy folds of his salwar kameez. This is her worst nightmare: after memorizing her diatribe against blood-thirsty Americans, one of them has come stalking up the ravines after her.

President Pervez Musharraf is holding polls on Oct. 10 to fulfill his promise to return Pakistan to the democratic path. But it is a brand of democracy that suits the General better than anyone else. He rewrote election rules to disqualify former Prime Ministers Mohammed Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, and threatened to toss them in jail if they returned from abroad, which badly undermined both Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League and Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). And once the polls are over, the elected government will work under a constitution amended by Musharraf, which gives expanded powers both to him and a new military-heavy National Security Council. Musharraf insists he is merely trying to prevent corruption and bad governance; critics say he has no intention of letting elected civilians run Pakistan. Faced with such criticism, Musharraf appears eager to divert public attention away from the election—hence, last Friday, Pakistan test-fired a nuclear-capable missile, and India performed a parallel missile test hours afterwards.

The President must have known his tinkering would take some of the oomph out of an election campaign, which in Pakistan is usually as thunderous, and joyfully welcomed, as the yearly monsoon. But Musharraf prefers it dull, and that is how it is: the Pakistan Muslim League and the PPP combined normally get more than 50% of the popular vote, but now their camps are apathetic, producing one of the dullest campaigns in memory. What Musharraf did not expect was the force that has filled the vacuum: an alliance of six hard-line religious parties that calls itself the Muttahidda Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). The MMA is volubly anti- American, as Sumbal, the five-year-old anti-Yankee rabble-rouser, demonstrates. More worrisome for Musharraf: it has also become a focus for popular discontent against him for his actions since Sept. 11, especially his crackdown on insurgents going to fight jihad in Kashmir, and what is perceived to be his pro-America pandering.

In the past, Pakistani religious parties seldom grabbed more than five percent of the vote. The country’s intelligentsia likes to claim this is because, once all the hollering dies down and ballots are cast, Pakistanis are moderate, secular folk. In fact, most Pakistanis are poor, unschooled people who traditionally vote as their feudal squires command—or suffer their wrath. With the two big parties in retreat, the hard-line religious coalition is leading a whole lot of voters to the booths. Polls indicate that the MMA could win 30 to 50 of the 270 National Assembly seats. (Another 70 seats are reserved for women and minorities, a Musharraf innovation.) That is nowhere near a majority. But in a splintered Parliament, it could be enough to give the clerics a few berths in a future coalition government. From there, the clerics could snipe and demand radical Islamic changes in schools and social programs.

Hatred is a powerful motivator. Until the clerics made common cause against America, the six hard-line party leaders were rivals. They stormed each other’s mosques and split hairs over ideological disputes dating back to Islam’s early days. Their differences were stark: some worship at the tombs of local Sufi saints; others dismiss that practice as blasphemy. Most of the parties want their women veiled from head to toe, although more liberal groups argue that it ought to be the woman’s choice. The personalities of the parties’ leaders have also clashed.** Qazi Hussain Ahmed from the Jamaat-e-Islami is a cultured, well-traveled cleric who speaks with the measured finality of a judge passing a grim sentence. Several of his new brethren, in contrast, are unquestionably flamboyant. Maulana Fazlur Rehman wears robes of golden thread and was dubbed “Maulana Diesel” after allegations were made—though never proven—that he was involved in a fuel scam. Maulana Samiul Haq earned the nickname “Sandwich Sammy” after being photographed (presumably by Pakistani intelligence officers) in an inventive position with several bedmates. “We have our differences, some of them centuries-old,” concedes Ahmed, “But we have enough in common.”** :smiley:

The MMA’s stronghold lies in the tribal band along the Afghan border. Its Baluch and Pashtun supporters are ethnically and ideologically tied to the former Taliban rulers in Afghanistan, thus their anti-Americanism. The region is where Pakistani and U.S. intelligence officers believe many al-Qaeda fighters, possibly even Osama bin Laden, may be holed up. Guns are in plentiful supply. Basha Kamal from Khana-Khel village, in the hills behind the turquoise Indus River, slaps his hip and says: “Of course I carry an automatic pistol. That doesn’t mean I’m a terrorist.” He adds, “But I refuse to bow to the Americans. This is our land.”

The clerics have a long litany of gripes against the Americans and Musharraf, whom they dismiss as “an American agent” and “a puppet.” They resent him for allowing the U.S. to use Pakistani military bases in Baluchistan and the Northwest Frontier province as staging posts in its Afghan campaign. It angers them that agents of the fbi wiretap Pakistani telephones and organize raids on suspected al-Qaeda hideouts. The Islamic hard-liners even fret that cameras at the Karachi airport are feeding images into CIA computers. What riles them most is that Musharraf has buckled to U.S. pressure and scaled down Pakistan’s covert support of Muslim militants fighting in Indian-held Kashmir. “This is against our sovereignty,” says the MMA’s Ahmed.

Musharraf has plainly given the religious groups more free rein in the campaign than he has allowed the two big parties that were his main rivals. In Jhang city, in Punjab province, Maulana Azam Tariq, leader of an outlawed extremist group called Sipah-e-Sahaba, which has been linked to numerous sectarian killings, is being allowed to run as an independent—despite election laws that disqualify any candidate who has criminal charges pending, or even those who did not earn a college degree. “It makes no sense that Benazir can’t run in the election,” says one Islamabad-based diplomat, “and this nasty guy can.” Musharraf may have underestimated the power of nastiness, the depth of the Islamic conservatives’ popular support, and the intensity of their hostility towards him. That anger also extends to his American allies, especially where it counts the most: in al-Qaeda country.

80

http://www.dawn.com/2002/10/08/top3.htm

Shahbaz, Kulsoom’s petitions dismissed

By Our Staff Reporter

ISLAMABAD, Oct 7: The Supreme Court on Monday declined to accept the pleadings of Shahbaz Sharif and Kulsoom Nawaz to overturn Lahore High Court’s decision of disqualifying them from the general elections.

The Supreme Court bench comprising Chief Justice Riaz Ahmed Sheikh, Justice Nazim Hussain Siddiqui and Justice Qazi Mohammad Farooq rejected the petitions with an observations that the court could not disrupt the election process at such a belated stage.

The court also observed that accepting the appeals of Shahbaz Sharif and Kulsoom Nawaz would mean discrimination against three petitioners, the pleadings of whom were rejected earlier by the court on the grounds that only few days have left in the elections and it was practically not possible to print ballot papers and make them available at the polling stations in time.

Ashtar Ausaf Ali, representing former chief minister of Punjab Shahbaz Sharif and Kulsoom Nawaz, the wife of Nawaz Sharif, also requested the court to stay the elections in those constituencies where his clients were contesting. He also offered to bear the cost of printing and logistics of the ballot papers.

The counsel later told the reporters that Shahbaz Sharif was contesting from constituencies NA-122 and PP-141 and 142 and Kulsoom Nawaz from NA-119 and 120.

The court observed that the election process was at the final stages and could not be disturbed at such a belated stage.

The counsel argued that it was the fundamental right of his clients to fight the elections besides candidates could not be thrown out of the election arena without any legal grounds. The counsel also cited Article 17 of the constitution to establish that contesting elections and to remain in a political office was a fundamental right of an individual. Besides, it was not a question of an individual but it involves the head of a political party. He argued that Begum Kalsoom was ousted from the elections on the grounds that her signatures were not attested.

Mr Ali also clarified that his clients have not been disqualified by the high court but ousted from the election arena on technical grounds, which would be a great injustice to the nation.

The petitioners had prayed that the election tribunal had accepted the election appeals against them without announcing the judgment in open court or the chambers on Sept 12. The reader of the court conveyed the order of acceptance of appeals orally at about 6:45 pm to the press and other personal present, the counsel stated.

He apprised the court that he had immediately applied to obtain the copy of the order, but it could not be procured on the reason that it was not signed till 10:30 am on Sept 14. He reminded that the tribunal had ceased to exist on Sept 13.

He pleaded that since the appeals was not disposed of within the specified period, therefore it stood rejected by the operation of law and the order of the returning officer of accepting the nomination papers stood restored.

He stated that an application was also moved to the Election Commission on Sept 14 to direct the returning officers to include the petitioner’s name in the list of the validly nominated candidates and a symbol of Pakistan Muslim League-N be allotted.

However, when the petitioners were excluded from the final list which was also announced on Sept 14, they went to the Lahore High Court which also dismissed the case on the grounds that the finding of the tribunal could not be upset in constitutional jurisdiction.