Farewell Tuvalu - a victim of global warming.

Mursalin,

I am in negotiations with moderators for opening a science and technology posting site. I will be a regular on the site…I’m sure others like yourself would also enjoy it alot.

Tech Talk…just does’nt do the trick…mostly full of computer/software related stuff.

I will be more than happy to continue this disscussion in the open and other enmvironmental/geological science topics…i thought everyone else got bored.

But glad to hear your interested…hope this Science and Technology posting site gets the go ahead

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Thap

Tuvalu is a FRAUD:

I will search for some online links for this information. However, it is my understanding from guests on a radio talk show I heard that the water level of Tuvalu has actually dropped over the last 20 or so years. It is not in danger of sinking beneath the ocean due to global warming or any other reason.

This story is a big FRAUD.

Hmmmmm,

I think the topic had broadened.

That's why I think this should'nt be placed in the pol/sci forum. Not much constructive debate.

Here’s one link on the falling sea level. http://www.google.com/search?q=cache:aliEyVjLi9g:www.millenngroup.com/repository/global/sea_level.html+tuvalu+global+warming&hl=en

Falling Sea Level Upsets Theory of Global Warming
By Mark Chipperfield in Tuvalu and David Harrison in London
Article from The Telegraph
6 August 2000

In the early 1990s, scientists forecast that the coral atoll of nine islands - which is only 12ft above sea level at its highest point - would vanish within decades because the sea was rising by up to 1.5in a year. However, a new study has found that sea levels have since fallen by nearly 2.5in and experts at Tuvalu’s Meteorological Service in Funafuti, the islands’ administrative centre, said this meant they would survive for another 100 years.

They said similar sea level falls had been recorded in Nauru and the Solomon Islands, which were also considered to be under threat. The release of the data from Tuvalu, formerly part of the Gilbert and Ellice Islands, will renew scientific debate about climate change and its impact on ocean levels. The island’s scientists admitted they were surprised and “a little embarrassed” by the change, which they blame on unusual weather conditions caused by El Nino in 1997.

Hilia Vavae, the Metereological Service’s director, said: “This is certainly a bit of a shock for us because we have been experiencing the effect of rising oceans for a long time.” Although their country has been saved from imminent engulfment, not all islanders are happy about the change in Tuvalu’s fortunes. Residents who once worried about their homes being flooded are now complaining that the lower tides are disrupting their fishing expeditions, making it difficult to moor their boats and navigate low-lying reefs.

However, scientists both on and off the island believe such concerns will be short term because the sea level falls are coming to an end and the oceans will soon resume their inexorable rise. The Tuvalu government, a vocal critic of the industrialised world at environmental conferences in Tokyo and Rio de Janeiro, has said that the result of its research is a “blip” and it is expected to make climate change a major issue when it joins the United Nations next month.

Low-lying coral islands such as Tuvalu and the Maldives are among the countries most vulnerable to rising sea levels. Most of the world’s leading scientists agree that the earth is warming up, caused by carbon dioxide emissions from petrol and the burning of coal.

Last month a study by Nasa, the US space agency, found that sea levels were being pushed up by the addition of 50 billion tons of water a year from Greenland’s melting ice sheet. Professor Patrick Nunn, head of geography at the University of the South Pacific in Fiji and an expert on island formation, said last week that the figures from Tuvalu, Papua New Guinea and the Solomons were based on inadequate research.

He said: “It is a nonsense to try to make predictions about climate change from a data base of only seven years. You need data over a minimum period of at least 30 years. A lot of these sea gauges have been slowly falling over the last five years but that is a short-term trend. Island countries such as Kiribati and Tuvalu remain incredibly vulnerable to sea change. These low-lying islands are between 2,000 and 3,000 years old. They only formed because sea levels fell, allowing a build up of sand and gravel. Now it could go the other way.”

Ms Vavae is also pessimistic about the future of her country, which last year signed a £34 million deal to license its domain name - tv.com - to an American internet company. She said: "There is no doubt about the impact of climate change on Tuvalu. We already have difficulty planting traditional crops. We’ve seen more frequent tropical cyclones, more severe droughts and alarming sea level heights during spring tides.

“We are still facing the daunting prospect of being one of the first countries to be submerged by sea-level rises related to climate change.”

Thap, thank you very much for taking the time to write out your detailed responses. (By the way, I hope you’re not still stuck in Egypt and were able to make it back to Pakistan). Mursalin is so accurate, this is interesting stuff. You seem knowledgeable about this and willing to take the time to reply, so I hope you will bear with the stupid queries that are about to follow

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Extinction and evolution of species is constantly occurring…the biosphere is not static. There have been many periods in the geological past (not extinction events) when the rate of species disappearing was much higher.
I agree with that. However, as you mention those extinction events were caused by natural factor - the Krakatau (sorry for the misspelling) volcanic explosion is one example; yes it definitely caused severe stress upon ecosystems and biomes but it may be considered as a natural part of the Earth’s geological history. Following the explosion, at least our planet’s ecosystems had sufficient time to rejuvenate and adapt to the stresses caused by the explosion. I think on the contrary, anthropogenic events exact a much more demanding toll upon the earth, globally as well as locally, because we allow absolutely no time for the earth to heal itself.

For example, the numbers of plant and animal species becoming extinct in Costa Rican rainforests, as a result of human interference, is approx. 50,000 every year, an average of about 140/day. http://www.pbs.org/tal/costa_rica/facts.html
According to the same source, 2000 trees are cut down in the rainforests every minute. Two thousand may not seem like a whole lot if we think on a global scale, but in my opinion at least it’s significant for the following reasons - replanting of trees in tropical countries occurs at the ratio of 1 replant for every 10 trees cut down. (In some countries, the ratio is 1:30). It’s true that other historical natural events have had massive effects upon earth’s ecosystems, but at least with regards to those events, the earth was subsequently given time to recuperate. Gradually reforestation occurred, with even perhaps enhanced biodiversity amongst both plants and animals; today, human interference prevents this planet from going through the natural mechanisms it possesses to heal itself. So, in my humble (and possibly very wrong) opinion, the per-minute loss of 2000 trees represents an ecological devastation on many fronts - rate of replanting is minimal compared to the rate of deforestation. Cutting down 2000 trees in the rainforest per minute would not be as catastrophic a global event, perhaps, if we were simultaneously replanting at least 1000 trees per minute - but we are not. What also doesn’t help, perhaps, is that global demand for paper and other byproducts of wood is not decreasing.

We only inhabit, as a civilisation less then 20% of the planet…we do not have much affect on it as a whole… The Earth is in flux, it’s atmosphere, it’s crust and the chemical nature of the oceans. We aint that special globally…we are natural…anything we do is natural… most man-made/anthropogenic causes for global catastrophes have to be seen in context of the geological record.
I wholly agree with your statement that we are not that special globally, but I’m not so certain that “anything [humans] do is natural”. (This is where my especially stupid part comes in) - in my environmental science class, we were taught that every organism and species possesses an ecological footprint (EF) - isn’t it true that, geologically speaking, natural-caused events leave a much small EF than anthropogenic ones? Particularly since the Industrial Revolution in Europe during the 1800s, we have been responsible for much of the plant/animal species loss, smog and associated respiration problems, species interbreeding due to stock depletion and the associated genetic problems, water pollution, etc., than any other factor(s)?

True, climate fluctuations have ALWAYS been occurring - nothing new about that. But the rate at which we, through our habits of mass consuming renewable and non-renewable resources, drastically alter the earth’s climatic patterns without allowing any appreciable time whatsoever to the ecosystems, biomes, and the organisms that inhabit them to adjust and recover - is different and unique, and that makes our ecological footprint on this earth much more larger, and dangerous, than any one else’s.

(Sorry if I said anything stupid in the above, to be honest I’m still trying to figure my way through this whole issue of the environment and apologies if I blabbed anything wrong).

Myvoice, is the issue of Tuvalu truly a fraud - your article also includes the following statements: "However, scientists both on and off the island believe such concerns will be short term because the sea level falls are coming to an end and the oceans will soon resume their inexorable rise. ...] Professor Patrick Nunn, head of geography at the University of the South Pacific in Fiji and an expert on island formation, said last week that... "It is a nonsense to try to make predictions about climate change from a data base of only seven years. You need data over a minimum period of at least 30 years. A lot of these sea gauges have been slowly falling over the last five years but that is a short-term trend. Island countries such as Kiribati and Tuvalu remain incredibly vulnerable to sea change. These low-lying islands are between 2,000 and 3,000 years old. They only formed because sea levels fell, allowing a build up of sand and gravel. Now it could go the other way." Perhaps all we may state with certainty is that from both sides, there's still a fair bit of speculation about this issue.

Nadia_H

First let me start by saying..no you didn’t blab

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. Your post was accurate and thought provoking and points expertly put across. Your a soon to be professional after all.

What I am about to say next will sound silly when first reading it. I have studied the environment past and present for about 10 years now since I was 17. Most of what I write is from the top of my head…this is the way I enjoy doing it sorry…more ideas than hard and fast facts.

I’ll start my probably silly theory.

  1. Ecological niche

…there is an echinoid (Mycaster-small heart shaped cigarette packet sized mollusc) that is found constantly through the geological record, unchanged for over 100 millions years. This is not wholly uncommon but rare all the same. It hasn’t changed because it evolved into an environment that suited it perfectly and thus had no reason to evolve…

  1. Punctuated Equilibria and Evolution

…the trees receded to open grassland and savannah around two million years ago leading to the demise of the exclusively forest dwelling Neanderthal and the rise of the adaptable Cro-Magnon. Several rapid seemingly catastrophic events (1000’s years time-scale) are now thought to be responsible for evolution..a theory first proposed to me whilst I was an undergraduate studying evolution at Leeds University…it contradicts the Darwinian time-scale for evolution and makes alot of sense…and is known as Punctuated Equillibria. Diverse species sets are known to evolve rapidly in the aftermath of such events. As many thousand species go extinct many hundreds replace them better suited to the environment and at the same time with a greater degree of adaptability…

  1. Synopsis: Ever changing organism Earth.

The reason I have repeatedly (perhaps unfoundedly) hinted at the fact that industry, you me our actions are natural, are based on the above theories. We have no rights and/or control over the planet for we are part of it. Our actions are the actions of a leaf on a tree. Some could argue, quite rightly that we have consciousness and should be responsible for our surroundings. Not be wasteful….with this I agree, the Quran has pointed this out to us. But at the same time progress (technologic, civil and scientific) may have the world divided into 3 staunch camps…the hardline scientist who care little for ‘nature’ those who abhor technological advance at the expense of nature and those who don’t really care about either as long as the TV still works. I sit outside of all three camps and truly believe in the rite of expressing the fact that we will evolve technologically and the environment will change but we will adapt.

So at the same time I agree with you wholeheartedly that we are have an impact on the planet’s biosphere…..I disagree that it is negative…nor is it positive it just is what it is ……..continuing Punctuated Equilibria as opposed to the established of an Ecological Niche.

I know I waffled a bit….much better at talking than typing.

Hope I didn’t bore you too much……..J.

Thanks for reading..

Nadia H,

Yes still in Egypt will be here until June 2002 (home to uk for xmas and my birthday

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) and then off to Jakarta for a year.

I will get a chance to go to Pakistan early next year inshallah.

Sorry for block posting.

But would just like to add that I think, as with many things in life, there is a lot of room for philosophy in science.

Cut and pastes are well and good (not a dig at you Nadia H, you were very balanced) but lets not kill creative thought.

Everyone needs facts but lets find creative, innovative and pioneering ways of using them.

Salaam.

P.S. The credibility of evolution in religion is my favorite debate topic…will wait for the hopefully coming Science/Technology forum…hint… hint…

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[This message has been edited by Thap (edited November 21, 2001).]

Thap, many many thanks for your interesting replies. I really appreciate it.

[quote]
Originally posted by Thap:
*I will get a chance to go to Pakistan early next year inshallah.
*

[/quote]

I hope you do, Insha'Allah.

Nadia H,

I appreciate your response

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Another interesting side note…

There are many ways to describe ‘dominance’ if an alien passed by our planet and attempted to guage the most numerous and successful species (dominant organism) it would find that it is ‘Emilia Huxlie’ a blue-green algae present in most marine environments.

I agree we must be careful how we use our resources but also mindful that we can leave the bounds of this planet…maybe not yet in any significant manner, but very surley in the future.

PS1: Punctuated Equilibria, my aim in discussing this was to highlight that many instances of evolution occur in bursts, and not wholly through generational natural selection as propounded by Darwin. They are both in operation. But for mankind the evolutionary process is wholly different over the last few hundred years…it could be coined technological evolution and is spurred on by mainly changes in thought sparking inventive bursts of advancement. One such catalyst (unfortunately) is war.

PS2:
Maybe you could send an e-mail to the moderators too about the Science and Technology forum…they are reviewing the idea at the moment.

.

[This message has been edited by CM (edited June 05, 2002).]

Ah come one CM,

Give it a go

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Please click
http://www3.pak.org/gupshup/Forum2/HTML/008011.html

[This message has been edited by Thap (edited November 22, 2001).]

.

[This message has been edited by CM (edited June 05, 2002).]

CM,

Time to overcome your fear

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I was writing this paper on Global warming and the international environmental crisis. This thread provided me with a lot of cannon fodder for the paper.Thanks all.

and umm id support the new forum on Science … but looking at my total posts … you will see that my support wont do much good ..

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i just come here to read and soak up on ideas posted by others and use em to impress nerdy chicks at parties ..

choti choti khushian hain …

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Well, has it sunk yet?