Election predictions 2013

[hanibal]

Re: Election predictions 2013

@yazdi

^^^

I don’t think PTI can afford an understanding with PPP specially in Punjab. They will give all the initiative of opposing the PPP government to PMLN.. It will be suicidal for PTI and a dream scenario for PMLN.. at present there is a very strong anti PPP wave in Punjab..

That is exactly what SMQ group of PTI believes, i agree with them on this, on the other hand, there is other group who also have some strong points for such understanding, remember no one in PT is pushing for alliance or seat adjustment thing with PPP, it would be just an understanding and would be on those seats where PPP is weak and knows cannot defeat PML-N that is where this understanding will become handy!!! and i agree with logic of this group as well, they are right when they say that in order to defeat PML-N out of Punjab we need to be flexible as taking both PPP and PML-N heads on is not going to be beneficial at all!!!

@yazdi

Secondly people who argue on the basis of by-elections are simply naive. Voters know perfectly their vote will not change the government in by-elections therefore they tend to vote for people who can make some development their constituency. During the general election the voters will ask themselves before voting if they need to repeat the same past 5 years.. and I am afraid no sane person would like to have the same government for next five years specially in Punjab..

not that i saying that the election result is there to draw the winning or loosing trend, it is the understanding between the PPP and PTI, specially between Javed Hashmi and PPP to defeat PML-N in of the seats they have never lost in last 20 years or so, the interesting part is, the PML-N candidate was none other but the nephew of Shah Mehmood Qureshi…

@yazdi

I foresee MQM also parting ways with PPP to consolidate their vote bank any time before the elections otherwise they will also face a big electoral damage if they decide to remain in coalition and contest the election. I think they will use budget as a pretext to part ways from the government. PMLQ is likely to the only party to make seat re adjustment with PPP in coming elections..

MQM have already started their campaign, have you seen their Shadow Budget thing, i mean if i am part of the govt or ally of the govt, i would rather give my suggestions for the budget to the govt and would use all the pressure i can to force govt to implement those in the budget, but what we got is, MQM came out with the Shadow Budget and that is it… anyways, i agree, not only MQM but i thing ANP will also part their ways from PPP… PML-Q have bitter experience of 2008 when they stayed with MUSHY and lost big time and that is why they already saying that they may leave the govt on the power-cut issue!~!

@yazdi

Election politics will be very different from post election politics.. I think we are heading for another hung parliament after these elections.. Mr. Zardari is actually better off in playing power politics than everyone else.. If only he can retain 50/60 seats… which in present scenario seems an uphill task..

I think zardari will manage to hold these many seats!!! Sind is very much with him and it is mainly the anti-ppp forces which are joining PML-N so far, no big dent for PPP in Sindh, remember, Karachi was never their strong hold and that is why they could afford to mess the city up…
And yes you are right!!! Zardari would be in very much interesting position, let see, how would he plays if he gets 50 or 60 seats which i think is not that difficult for him…