Re: Breaking News: Musharraf resigns
By Hamid Mir
ISLAMABAD: Was the fallen Pervez Musharraf living in a fool’s paradise right till the end? He may have been.
** Just a few minutes before his speech he told one of his close friends that the coalition partners will start fighting with each other very soon, there will be more political instability in his absence, people will come out on the streets in the next six months and they will demand “come back Musharraf”. **
** That is the reason Musharraf is not leaving Pakistan. He will stay in Pakistan under heavy security and he will wait for the people to call him back. He is sadly mistaken. The people of Pakistan have already rejected him and his policies on Feb 18. They were sick of him and that was why even George W Bush abandoned him in his last days but Musharraf still thinks that Pakistan cannot survive without him.
**
He claimed in his Monday speech that Pakistan was about to be declared a failed state in 1999 but he rescued the country and brought a new recognition for Pakistan. He never mentioned Kargil which gave a bad name to Pakistan, he never mentioned anything about the judicial crisis that he created in 2007 and he never mentioned anything about the assassination of PPP leader Benazir Bhutto.
It was the death of Benazir that started the downfall of Musharraf. His government lost its writ for at least one week after the assassination of Benazir. There was violence everywhere and the government just evaporated. That was the time when the Army decided to stay away from Musharraf to save its credibility and that was how Musharraf lost his power. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto was also a big blow to the peace process in South Asia.
President Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh agreed on an “out of the box “solution of the Kashmir dispute after many rounds of direct and indirect talks. They decided in 2006 to resolve the Kashmir dispute by the end of 2007 maximum. US President George W Bush was also on board with them.
Both the leaders were hoping for a Nobel Peace Prize in 2008 but now they have missed the chance. Musharraf is no more in a position to sell an “out of the box” solution on Kashmir. Manmohan Singh will also face difficulties for the approval of such a formula from the Indian parliament after the recent Hindu-Muslim violence in Jammu and Kashmir.
Musharraf and Manmohan Singh first met during the UN Summit in New York when the Indian prime minister called on the Pakistani president at his hotel in New York on September 24,2004. It was an extremely pleasant encounter. Musharraf met Manmohan Singh again on April 18, 2005 during a one-day cricket match between India and Pakistan in Delhi. India lost this match to Pakistan but Musharraf and Manmohan Singh decided that they would find a Kashmir solution in which no side will be a loser but all the sides would be winners.
After few months they had another dinner on September 14, 2005 in New York, during the UN General Assembly. Musharraf proposed the demilitarisation of Jammu and Kashmir, self governance and a joint management mechanism of the troubled valley. Initially Manmohan Singh raised many objections but later on both of them decided to continue their efforts for reaching an “out of the box” solution without compromising the stated positions of their governments.
Indian National Security Adviser MK Narayanan and Pakistan’s National Security adviser Tariq Aziz continued their quiet diplomacy in Dubai to discuss some more details. The Indian side convinced the PDP’s pro-Delhi Kashmiri leader Mehbooba Mufti, and the Pakistani side took into confidence separatist Kashmiri leaders Mir Waiz Umar Farooq and Yasin Malik for resolving the Kashmir dispute in the year 2007.
The details of the great Kashmir solution were finalised in June 2006. Musharraf wanted Manmohan Singh to visit Pakistan in July 2006 but the Indian prime minister was looking for a politically suitable opportunity to break the ice.
Musharraf sent a message to Benazir Bhutto that the Kashmir problem will be resolved soon and she should support the proposed solution. Unfortunately, 2006 was wasted and 2007 started. That was the year when Musharraf started committing huge blunders. He sacked and arrested a sitting chief justice of Pakistan. Lawyers and members of civil society came out on the roads against him. He lost a legal battle in the Supreme Court of Pakistan on July 20, 2007 and Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry was restored.
Musharraf never digested this legal defeat. He struck a deal with exiled opposition leader Benazir Bhutto with the help of US and UK. Musharraf agreed to take off his Army uniform and hold fresh elections. Benazir Bhutto agreed to support the war against terrorism in return for free and fair elections.
Benazir returned to Pakistan in October but there was a huge trust deficit between her and Musharraf. She was not ready to take a clear position against the chief justice. An agitated Musharraf imposed emergency in Pakistan on November 3, 2007 mainly against the Supreme Court and the rebel media.
Benazir Bhutto declared this emergency as martial law and announced to stop her dialogue with Musharraf. Elections were announced on January 8, 2008 but Benazir Bhutto was smelling lot of rigging. She started making a noise against the rigging. She had a long meeting with the DG ISI Lt Gen Nadeem Taj on the night of December 26, 2008.
Taj warned her about some security threats and suggested to abandon her election campaign. Benazir Bhutto refused to take his dictation. Next day she was assassinated in Rawalpindi. This assassination spelled the actual political death of Musharraf. He lost his popularity in Pakistan completely. He delayed elections for one month but his rigging plans failed because the Army decided to stay away from politics.
Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani even ordered the ISI not to support any political party in the election. The neutral role of the Army was a big blow to Musharraf. His supporters lost with big margins. The Feb 18 election were a clear no-confidence of Pakistani voters against Musharraf but he never accepted his defeat.
He was not happy with the Army chief. As the supreme commander of the armed forces he was in a position to sack him but he was aware that the Army could defy his orders like he defied the orders of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in 1999 as Army chief. He decided to wait for an appropriate time to hit both the Army chief and the new coalition government.
Musharraf was sure that only he could resolve the Kashmir dispute, he was sure that only he had the guts to pave the way for the recognition of Israel by Pakistan. He was also sure that the Pakistan Army needed him despite the fact that he was no more in uniform.
He thought that only he could negotiate for more and more military aid from the US for the armed forces of Pakistan. He was sure that he would catch Osama bin Laden soon and the West would force the new coalition government to accept him as the president for the next five years.
Musharraf ruled Pakistan for more than eight years but he never ruled the hearts and minds of his people like a true leader because he never came to power through the ballot. He was definitely in a position to become a real peacemaker with the help of Manmohan Singh and Benazir Bhutto in 2007 but he missed this golden chance. He missed 2007 because he created political turmoil in Pakistan by attacking the judiciary.
He also missed the chance of getting a Nobel Peace Prize along with Manmohan Singh due to his ego and self righteousness. He has missed every bus now. He will soon realise that there is no use of staying in Pakistan and ultimately he will leave this country because it will be difficult for him to face the common people.
How he missed all the buses, including the Nobel Prize