Re: Bahrain protests
Did I write anywhere that new settlers in Bahrain are necessarily Sunnis? No doubt, new settlers might be mostly Sunnis and there is some problem in this respect too, but I do not think that main problem in Bahrain is Shia/Sunni, something Bahraini King might try to portray.
In my opinion, main problem is that Bahraini King is worried about indigenous Bahrainis and thus he imported new immigrants. To make his position more secure, he imported mostly Sunnis as new comers, and is using Shia/Sunni divide so that he buy loyalty of new comers effectively (money plus ethnic divide, instead of just money) to suppress indigenous population on Shia/Sunni divide pretext, just to prolong his rule.
Nevertheless, same fact is true with other middle-eastern Kingdoms, that Kings are worried about indigenous population and in one pretext or another suppress them, using foreign hired hands. Only difference with Bahrain is that, other middle-eastern Kingdoms are using money (in form of jobs) to buy loyalty of foreigners.
Now coming to your question:
I do not think that King would fall without a fight, and in that fight soldiers of King (foreign mercenaries) would be new settlers. Anyhow, you are right that when these mercenaries would see imminent downfall coming to reality, they would try to jump off the ship by escaping to their respective countries (regardless of them holding Bahraini Nationality or not). Some might get caught and may suffer persecution/massacre.
I do not think so. Pakistan is not Shia or Sunni country that anyone could use such divide to kill each other. Actually, even if Pakistan was Shia country or Sunni country, killing in the name of Shia/Sunni divide could not happen in such country. On pretext of Shia/Sunni divide, no Shia in his right mind would kill or persecute Sunni, and no Sunni in his right mind would kill or persecute Shia. Whenever these killings happened in history of Islam on Shia/Sunni divide, it happened when a Kharjee gets into power, and those who take part in such sectarian killings, they are Kharjees, who kill both Shia and Sunni using one pretext or another, doing takfeer on both of them … as without doing takfeer, it is impossible that a Muslim would kill another Muslim on religious or sect basis.
Few terrorist groups are there in Pakistan who got created in early 80s with the backing of especially Saudi Arabia and help of Zia-ul-Haq, to avert Iranian revolution moving to Middle Eastern Kingdom, as Middle Eastern Kingdoms felt threatened that Iranian revolution does not turn into Islamic revolution, wiping their existence as that revolution did to Shah of Iran (most powerful of Kings at that time).
With these terrorist outfits (in Muslim world, especially Pakistan) and initiation of Iraq-Iran war, Arab Kings managed to change perception of Iranian revolution from Islamic revolution to Shia based revolution, and thus succeeded in averting danger to them at that time, though their position may become perilous again if Egyptian revolution succeeds (though it seems it has, but in reality it has not, and would only succeed when military give up the power).
Further, the outfits Saudi Arabia and other Middle East Kingdoms created in Pakistan, they were not Sunni outfits (regardless of what they claim) or anti-Shia outfits, but they were Kharjee outfits targeting both Shia and Sunni in Pakistan (initially, they were targeting only Shias). Today, both Shia and Sunni in Pakistan hate these outfits, except a minority few.
So, even though I do not believe all Bahraini mercenaries are Kharjees, many may have become one and thus these returning Bahraini Kharjee mercenaries may join Kharjee terrorist outfits, but to do that, they would have to put their lives in peril too, as these outfits are getting hunted all over Pakistan (and their life is becoming more difficult with time). I do not think that many of those escaping mercenaries (even if they are Kharjees) would have guts to join Kharjee terrorist outfits and get hunted and killed in Pakistan themselves. Those with guts would get massacre in Bahrain itself.
I do not know about Indian situation that I could comment what may happen to them there, but maybe same applies to India.